818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP.
Figure 1: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark (red), from Philadelphia early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate of preliminary revision (light blue). Early benchmark calculated using ratio of sum-of-states early benchmark to sum-of-states. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
How does this change the picture regarding business cycle indicators?
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision of NFP (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
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