In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?

Here’s the current situation:

Figure 1: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 10/4/2024. Source: BLS via FRED. 

The arrows denote local peaks. Note there are two for the household series; the 2023M11 observation is only 2000 higher than the 2024M09 figure. Taking the September figure as the local peak, there is little suggestion that a NBER-peak has occurred.

And here are the (real-time) depictions of the household and establishment series around recession dates for the previous four recessions.

Figure 2: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 6/7/1990. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 3: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 5/4/2001. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 4: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 2/1/2008. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

Figure 5: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 4/3/2020. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.

In real time, the household series turns one month earlier than the establishment in two cases (2001, 2007), and twice the turning points are the same time (1990 and 2020). In the revisions, the civilian series peaks are moved earlier once (1990), and later by two months (2001). The NFP peak is moved later once (2001 recession).

I do not think one should take too much from the current flattening out of the household series, given the fact that there has likely been an undercounting the population, which has spilled onto the estimates of employment.