Economy

Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution of Mufan Chen (University of Wisconsin).  An inverted yield curve is often…

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Trump’s Age of Uncertainty

As of yesterday: Figure 1: Top left: EPU, top right: EPU-trade; bottom left: Trade PolicyUncertainty; bottom right: Geopolitical Risk. Source:…

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Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index

NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange),…

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U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Record Low (since 1952)

Preliminary May results out: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned…

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One Day in Trump’s Iran War

Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and…

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Section 122 Tariffs Struck Down

From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a federal trade court in a fresh blow…

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Farmer Sentiment in a Time of War, both Trade and Kinetic

From Purdue/CME Ag Econ Barometer: Figure 1: Ag Econ Barometer index (blue, left scale), Consumer Confidence (brown, right scale). NBER…

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Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable

Assuming April value persists into May and June. Figure 1: WTI Net Oil Price, using previous 3 years (blue). NBER…

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How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?

Nominal and real exports are down. Figure 1: Wisconsin goods exports, mn $/mo (blue), in mn 2000$/mo (red), seasonally adjusted…

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EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026

From EIA today. Look not only at gasoline, but also diesel Unexpected? The link from oil price to gasoline and…

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