Economy
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Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized): Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP…
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Why Focus on Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers?
Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” —…
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Consumer Confidence in April | Econbrowser
Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup…
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GDP, Personal Income and other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat. Figure…
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A worried Econ Watcher | Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in…
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The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds
As of 2pm CT today: The July 1 probability hasn’t been this low since April 7th, when June Brent…
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Brent Front Month above $111
Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today: Source link
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Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday): Figure 1: Brent…
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