Income and consumption m/m growth at consensus. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd release (blue bars), and GDPNow for 2023Q4 as of 12/22 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12/1/2023 release), Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The two primary indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC are nonfarm payroll employment and personal income ex-transfers. Those are both rising through November.
Note that as of today, GDPNow is at 2.3% for Q4 (q/q SAAR), while the NY Fed nowcast is at 2.4% for Q4 (and 2.2% for 2024Q1). The St. Louis Fed Economic News Index nowcast is 1.6%.
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