Economy
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Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture…
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GDP Nowcasts: Continued Growth into Q3
We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs. Figure 1: GDP…
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Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”
Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and…
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EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading: Once you factor…
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The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over…
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Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy
From Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024): Source link
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Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when…
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Employment Slowdown in Context | Econbrowser
NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does…
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A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above…
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Peter Schiff on Recession | Econbrowser
Peter Schiff today: This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came…
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