Economy
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Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today: For comparison, here is the y/y (official) inflation rate (through June). With the policy rate at…
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2024Q2 GDP Advance Release: Too Good to Be True?
GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes: 2.8% Fake…
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Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC…
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Still strong after all these years
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in…
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Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate. Source: Predict, accessed…
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MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate…
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CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge
From CBO report released yesterday. The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge: Figure 1: Baseline…
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Instantaneous Core Inflation | Econbrowser
Four out of five measures down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI…
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DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes. …
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News and Sentiment | Econbrowser
A snapshot as of July: Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF…
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