Economy

The Likelihood of a Plaza Accord 2.0

Mark Sobel at OMFIF discusses the likelihood of an new Plaza Accord to depreciate the dollar. Given one would need…

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Disingenuousnous Watch | Econbrowser

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes: Another month, another record high for the number of gov’t employees   Well, yes. Of course, population…

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Who’s Real Wage? | Econbrowser

EJ Antoni writes: Today’s employment data showed further gains in earnings, but cumulative price increases have still far outpaced earnings…

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EJ Antoni Worries about the Gap between CES NFP and CPS Employment

From a X post today: There have been widening gaps between NFP and civilian employment in the recent, which he…

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Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024

Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K…

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Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair…

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DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”

(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth…

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A Contrarian View on Recession Probabilities: Are We Out of the Woods?

As I have observed before, the explanation for why we have not yet seen a recession’s onset in the data…

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France’s Sovereign Debt Situation: Some Graphs

Here’re CDS swaps and spreads vis a vis Germany over the past year:   The credit ratings have been stable…

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The Declining Driving Miles Intensity of GDP

Trend shifted down, but sensitivity up. Figure 1: Log of ratio of vehicle miles traveled to monthly GDP (000’s miles…

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