Economy
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“Sustainable” Employment Growth Is Only at +73K
At least according to EJ Antoni’s definition, in his critique of employment growth under the Biden administration: gov’t and the…
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Yield Curve Steepening: Expected Inflation vs. Real Rates (or Something Else)
Big jumps in yields; as shown at the five year maturity, the move is evident in both nominal and real…
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Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures
Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise. Figure 1: Change in…
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Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
May NFP growth at +172K outpaces +85K Bloomberg consensus (87K surprise vs. 53K Mean Absolute Revision goinng from 1st-3rd release…
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“Technical Recession” Lessons of 2022 US for 2026 Canada
Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a…
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Proposing Section 301 Sanctions on… the World (or Most of It)
From Bloomberg: The US is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, following an…
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Have We Really Been in Recession since 2022? Antoni & St. Onge Revisited
Not by me, but by Jeffrey A. Tucker, today: In 2024, Brownstone Institute commissioned a study (by E.J. Antoni and Peter St.…
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Why We Pay Attention to Personal Income Ex-Transfers (and Why We Wait for Revisions)
Discussion with Justin Ho on MarketPlace yesterday. Disposable income (after tax, after transfers) is useful for assessing the state of…
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US Ag Prospects | Econbrowser
From Purdue Univ/CME Ag Economy Barometer today: Farmer sentiment dropped again in May as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy…
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“Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index”
Chicago Fed letter, by Brave, Henken, and Jolley: …we show how related daily measures of consumer sentiment can be used…
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