Economy
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“Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index”
Chicago Fed letter, by Brave, Henken, and Jolley: …we show how related daily measures of consumer sentiment can be used…
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QCEW and Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
QCEW covered employment data through end-2025 is out. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from BLS CES (bold black), Bloomberg consensus…
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Freight Transportation Services Index Revised Down, Rising in April
Here’s in the context of other alternative business cycle indicators: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls…
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“…it will all work out well in the end – It always does!”: Oil Edition
Trump statement today. In other news, from Kalshi, 12:30pm CT: Source: Kalshi, accessed 6/1/2026. This is the lowest odds recorded…
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Price Indices and Expectations of the Price Level
Will people think things will get back to normal soon, per NEC Chair Hassett (fm ABC News)? “Well, look, in the…
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Trump Dithers and Betting on Re-Opening by July 1st Crashes
Not quite the lowest odds ever, but pretty close; betting odds have retraced to just before “imminent”. Source: Kalshi, accessed…
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Recession in Germany? Determination by Organization vs. by Prediction Market
Consider Germany over the last four years: Figure 1: German GDP (blue), and employment (red), both in logs, 2022Q3=0. Source:…
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Canada: Imminnent Recession? | Econbrowser
The second release of Q1 GDP pushed growth to a very slight negative number (-0.1% annualized). Lots of skeptical commentary…
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Peak in Personal Income ex-Transfers: September 2025 or January 2026?
The latest release shifted the peak in real personal income excluding current transfers — a key indicator followed by the…
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls…
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