Economy
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Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently. Figure 1: Top panel – Economic Policy Uncertainty – trade…
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Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45%…
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[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids [Originally posted in December 16, 2024]…
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Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI: Figure 1: Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue),…
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Federal Budget Deficit through May
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024: Source: CBO, Monthly Budget Review: May 2025. Source link
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Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at…
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In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration…
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Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator | Econbrowser
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024, stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the…
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“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
Part 2 was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change. From Richard Rubin in today’s WSJ: Swagel, a…
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May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing…
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