Economy

Grocery Prices (and Forecasts) | Econbrowser

As of the April 2026 CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted…

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Price Levels Relative to January 2025

Everyday prices outstripping measured CPI and subindices: Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI wage earners and clerical (green), CPI…

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Real Hourly Wages for April

Using today’s CPI release: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 5/11 (light…

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Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April

CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI (blue), by AIER’s “Everyday…

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Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply

Both can, and are, true: Figure 1: Regular gas price deflated by PCE deflator (blue, log scale), month-on-month growth rate…

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Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”

From FoxNews: A top Trump economic advisor is projecting a surge in U.S. growth, saying the country could see GDP…

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Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again

From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT: The fact that the odds keep on jumping up and down is befuddling. It is clear…

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Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution of Mufan Chen (University of Wisconsin).  An inverted yield curve is often…

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Trump’s Age of Uncertainty

As of yesterday: Figure 1: Top left: EPU, top right: EPU-trade; bottom left: Trade PolicyUncertainty; bottom right: Geopolitical Risk. Source:…

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Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index

NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange),…

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