Economy

Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High

Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises.   And here’s…

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Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation Rising?

No. Yes/No. Yes. Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment…

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Retail Egg Prices Up, Wholesale Down for Now – Forecasts Up

The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports?…

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Inflation Expectations Explode, Sentiment Collapses (U. Michigan)

Preliminary data today: Figure 1: One year inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), and economic sentiment (tan, right scale). Trump…

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Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser

Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core…

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Expect Drops in Interest Rates

The yield curve looks like this as of today’s close: The EHTS implies that in 6 months, the 6 month…

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“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser

Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two…

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Grocery Prices Continue to Rise, as Forecast Path Steepens

From CPI release today: Figure 1: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast from January (blue…

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Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser

I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to “Liberation Day” announcement, he didn’t, insofar…

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Ten Days that Shook the Financial World … But for What?

A recap:   For context, the 4/5 observation on EPU is the second highest value since 1985 (the first highest…

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