Economy
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Eight Measures of the US Price Level
Headline CPI has risen the least since 2025M01: Figure 1: Headline CPI (bold black), chained CPI, n.s.a. (green), CPI for…
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Brent vs. Gasoline and the Gasoline Stock Drawdown
Gasoline prices through Monday, vs. Brent. Why the divergence? Both prices are depicted using log scales. It’s clear it’s not…
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Personal Income, Corporate Profits | Econbrowser
Not standard NBER BCDC indicators, but still interesting. First, all measures of personal income (pretax, aftertax) are down while consumption…
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Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
Real consumption upside surprise, but large personal income ex-transfers downside surprise, plus downward revisions (along with Q1 GDP downward revision).…
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How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s release of April real consumption is for flat growth. Figure 1: Household net worth, end-of-quarter, in…
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Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He’s NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
From Kevin Hassett on Sunday’s Face the Nation: …let’s start with the [U.Michigan] consumer sentiment number, because that was a…
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Update: Grocery Price Outlooks Compared
This Bloomberg article spurred me to update yesterday’s post: A combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle…
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ARIMA on Grocery Prices | Econbrowser
Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI. Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast…
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Confidence Upside Surprise on Upwardly Revised April
From Conference Board, May reading of 93.1 vs Bloomberg consensus of 91.9, on an upwardly revised April measure of 93.8…
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How Glum? Bloomberg Consensus on Conference Board Confidence Index
Deterioration, but not as much as implied by U.Michigan. May number out tomorrow. Figure 1: Confidence Index (bold black), Bloomberg…
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