Economy
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U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Record Low (since 1952)
Preliminary May results out: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned…
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One Day in Trump’s Iran War
Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and…
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Section 122 Tariffs Struck Down
From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a federal trade court in a fresh blow…
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Farmer Sentiment in a Time of War, both Trade and Kinetic
From Purdue/CME Ag Econ Barometer: Figure 1: Ag Econ Barometer index (blue, left scale), Consumer Confidence (brown, right scale). NBER…
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Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable
Assuming April value persists into May and June. Figure 1: WTI Net Oil Price, using previous 3 years (blue). NBER…
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How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?
Nominal and real exports are down. Figure 1: Wisconsin goods exports, mn $/mo (blue), in mn 2000$/mo (red), seasonally adjusted…
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EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026
From EIA today. Look not only at gasoline, but also diesel Unexpected? The link from oil price to gasoline and…
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Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized): Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP…
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Why Focus on Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers?
Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” —…
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