Economy
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The Empirical Content of Money Base Monetarism
Chair Warsh’s focus on the Fed’s balance sheet and inflation can be interpreted in many ways. One way is a…
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EPU and News Sentiment Since the War
For EPU through yesterday, news sentiment through 5/18. Figure 1: Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson News Sentiment (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty (light…
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Did U.Mich Sample Overweighting of Democrats Lead to a Biased Reading on Sentiment, Pre-March?
That’s an assertion by EJ Antoni. Well, in Director Judy Hsu’s May report, she tackles this issue directly. The April…
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Detrended Sentiment | Econbrowser
Using the HP filter applied to U.Michigan Sentiment, consumers don’t seem too gloomy relative to “average”. But they do seem…
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U.Mich Sentiment, Gallup Confidence Plunge
May Michigan Sentiment downwardly revised from preliminary, to a record low. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index…
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Why the January CBO Baseline Debt Will Be Off
In a previous post, I noted that the January CBO projection of debt would likely be an underestimate, and perhaps…
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“From Bust to Boom: Stock Market Participation and the Housing Boom”
That’s the title of a paper by Yanshuo Chen, (PhD, UCSC): This paper shows that the dot-com crash contributed to…
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Who Holds Federal Debt As of March 30
Let’s hope foreign non-official sector wants to hold on to US government debt. Figure 1: Federal debt held by the…
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Where Should the 10 Year Treasury Rate Be?
Debt issuance is rising, foreign official holdings of Treasurys are falling, the Fed is reducing holdings, and expected inflation is…
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