Economy
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Russian Growth Slows | Econbrowser
From BOFIT today (translated by Google): GROWTH IN TOTAL PRODUCTION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT MONTHSAccording to the monthly estimate published…
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“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters. Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters…
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Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding about whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations…
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Alternative Measures of NFP | Econbrowser
Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600…
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Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”. Figure 1: M2…
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More on r* | Econbrowser
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri: Source: BIS Quarterly Review…
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Inflation in February | Econbrowser
Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus. Figure 1: CPI headline instantaneous…
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GDP and Treasury Yields in the Administration Forecast
Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February). First, GDP: Figure 1: GDP (black), Administration…
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Real Household Net Worth (from Flow of Funds)
Rising in 2023Q4: Figure 1: Household net worth, in trillions 1999M12 dollars (blue, left log scale), and per capita, in…
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“People … have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s”
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data. Figure 1: Top panel Economic Policy Uncertainty index, Middle panel VIX, Bottom…
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