Economy
-
The Change in 10 Year Yields: Up, Up and Away
Treasurys and TIPS, 70 and 46 bps respectively. Figure 1: Change since 2/27 in 10 year Treasury yield (blue), TIPS…
Read More » -
Adventures in Conditional Forecasting | Econbrowser
CEA Chair (Acting) Pierre Yared (NYT): … consumer prices would “go back down” once the war ended. That, he added,…
Read More » -
Mortgage Rates and Fuel Costs SitRep
Over the past year, as of data available today: Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com. 30 year mortgage rate up 0.69 ppts since the…
Read More » -
Deficit, Debt w/o the OBBBA
As Treasury yields jump, changes in fiscal policy come into scrutiny. By comparing the Feb 2026 to January 2025 CBO…
Read More » -
Yield Curves under Trump 2.0
Reversing the pattern of declining curves, the curve has steepened since the War’s start. Figure 1: Yield curve as of…
Read More » -
Why Are Oil Prices So Low?
The odds of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening by July 1st is at all time lows; and yet the front…
Read More » -
Musings on the Path of Real Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gasoline
Down from February, both real and nominal: Figure 1: Retail sales ex-auto, ex-gasoline stations, in mn$/mo (blue), in mn2025$/mo (red),…
Read More » -
Why Shouldn’t Yields Rise? | Econbrowser
Friday’s jump in 10 year Treasury yields (10 bps), and the 30 year yield nearing 5% alarmed markets. But why?…
Read More » -
Gasoline Implications of a Higher EV Fleet Share
One of the reasons why the impact of higher gasoline prices might be muted relative to the past is the…
Read More » -
Trump in China: 磕頭? | Econbrowser
Lots of gushing praise by President Trump of President Xi. Not so much from Xi. I’d characterize this as anything…
Read More »