Economy
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Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
Front month Brent futures (for June) jumped tonight. Where are gasoline prices going, conditional on those futures being predictive. Figure…
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What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
Consider this graph, comparing the Administration’s forecast to the latest WSJ forecast, and an error correction model incorporating Census population…
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Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
The optimism of Friday has been wiped away. The odds of a re-opening by May 15 down to 37%, and…
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Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are…
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MacParity, January 2026 | Econbrowser
Answer to Question 5 on Problem Set 4 in Public Affairs 854: Figure 1: Log relative price of Big Mac…
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Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
Following up on comments to the post “Where did all the affordable cars go”, a typical new vehicle bought in…
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1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Suppose we get a durable resumption of reopening of the Strait. Oil prices will likely stay elevated for some time…
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Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
G.17 release today shows downward movement in industrial, manufacturing production (-0.5%, -0.1% vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1% m/m). Industrial capacity utilization…
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GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. (red square), April IMF…
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“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
“Participants provide quick overviews of how the US’s current conflict with Iran affects energy supplies, relations in the Middle East,…
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