Economy
-
Gasoline Implications of a Higher EV Fleet Share
One of the reasons why the impact of higher gasoline prices might be muted relative to the past is the…
Read More » -
Trump in China: 磕頭? | Econbrowser
Lots of gushing praise by President Trump of President Xi. Not so much from Xi. I’d characterize this as anything…
Read More » -
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge | Econbrowser
For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%. Figure 1: GDP (bold black),…
Read More » -
A “New Normal” in Consumer Gloominess?
We’ve had a record low in the U.Michigan consumer sentiment in May (prel.). Given real aggregate output measures are rising…
Read More » -
NY Fed, SoFIE Predicted April Y/Y Inflation
although they over-estimated in 2023-24. Figure 1: Actual year-on-year CPI inflation (bold black), lagged expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers…
Read More » -
Ten Year Nominal and Real Yields Jump
As of close today, nominal yields are up 0.62%, real up 0.38% since the beginning of the war. Source link
Read More » -
Industrial and Manufacturing Production Up: The Divergence between Employment and Output Continues
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population…
Read More » -
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is…
Read More » -
Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee). Lessons from three decades of…
Read More » -
Parsing the Retail Sales Release
Sales rise, overall hits consensus. However, gasoline store sales constitute majority of increase. Figure 1: Change in retail sales (black line),…
Read More »