Economy
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The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario: This is the reference scenario, invoking a short war. Here are revisions preconflict,…
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Clifford Winston on “Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?”
From NYT, an interactive guest essay by Clifford Winston: For generations, working- and middle-class Americans could find an inexpensive, reliable set…
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Everyday Prices Jump | Econbrowser
From AIER today: AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly…
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Instantaneous Inflation in March | Econbrowser
Using Cleveland Fed nowcast for PCE. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4, per Eeckhout (2023)) for PCE deflator (green), CPI quarter-on-quarter annualized…
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“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
From CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian…
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Detrended Consumer Sentiment | Econbrowser
Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower…
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“U.S. Dollar Dominance in Trade Invoicing and Cross-Border Investments in SEACEN Economies
From Chapter 1, “US Dollar Dominance in the Global Economy, by Cyn-Young Park and Hiro Ito: … 3. Measuring Dollar…
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Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be…
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Inflation in March, and a Year from Now…
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2% Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), U. Michigan…
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Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are…
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