Economy
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How Big of a Cost-Push Shock? WTI at $91.38 in March
It’s true that the real price of oil is lower than in past episodes of oil price jumps. Moreover oil…
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The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
As of today’s close: Figure 1: Odds of Strait of Hormuz reopening by July 1, % (black, left scale); five…
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Price Levels and Implications of the PPI Release
Headline, Core PPI above BLoomberg consensus (1.4% vs. 0.5% m/m; 1.0% vs. 0.3% m/m). Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black),…
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Grocery Prices (and Forecasts) | Econbrowser
As of the April 2026 CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), January 2025 ERS forecast (inverted…
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Price Levels Relative to January 2025
Everyday prices outstripping measured CPI and subindices: Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI wage earners and clerical (green), CPI…
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Real Hourly Wages for April
Using today’s CPI release: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 5/11 (light…
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Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings deflated by CPI (blue), by AIER’s “Everyday…
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Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Both can, and are, true: Figure 1: Regular gas price deflated by PCE deflator (blue, log scale), month-on-month growth rate…
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Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”
From FoxNews: A top Trump economic advisor is projecting a surge in U.S. growth, saying the country could see GDP…
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Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT: The fact that the odds keep on jumping up and down is befuddling. It is clear…
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