From Purdue Univ/CME Ag Economy Barometer today:
Farmer sentiment dropped again in May as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index declined from 121 points in April to 119 (see Figure 1). The Current Conditions Index fell by 8 points, while the Future Expectations Index increased by 1 point (see Figure 2). This month’s Current Conditions Index was 21 points below last year’s December index, reaching its lowest level since December 2024.
Expectations rose slightly as current conditions fell:
Source: U.Purdue/CME (June 2026).
The main concern is rising input costs (fertilizer, energy etc.).
Source: U.Purdue/CME (June 2026).
Figure 1: PPI – nitrogenous fertilizer (blue), soybeans (green), grains (red), corn (orange), year-on-year growth rate. Source: BLS.
While some commodity prices have risen, they have been outpaced by input costs (even in the US). While not included in the graph, diesel prices have risen by 47% through April, declining only slightly in May (to 45%).
One interesting — albeit perhaps unsurprising — trend is the decreasing gap between right direction/wrong direction sentiment.
Source: U.Purdue/CME (June 2026).
The gap has decreased from 50 pts (December 2025) to 4 pts in May (and from 30 pts in March).
As a side note, while fertilizer prices have risen in the US, they have risen even more, globally.
Figure 2: World price of fertilizer (blue), of agricultural commodities (brown), both indices, on log scale. Source: World Bank.
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