Monthly GDP Instantaneous Inflation vs. Core PCE

GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%.

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for monthly GDP deflator (black), core PCE (red), per Eeckhout (2023). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: S&P Global Market Insights, BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.