Economy

Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007

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Here’s 2007-08:

Figure 1: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. NBER recession dates (post-peak to trough) shaded gray. Source: FRED, NBER.

And here’s now (on same vertical scale, for context):

Figure 2: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. Source: FRED.

As long time adherent to term spread predictor of recessions, I must say doesn’t look like the recession has yet arrived. This in line with monthly and weekly business cycle indicators shown in this post, and this post.

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