As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), DoR forecast (tan +), implied from SPF forecast, 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue (Nov.), SPF and author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast from November was based on the slowdown at the national level built into the S&P Global Market Insights forecast from that month. To the extent that the slowdown has not materialized, it’s not surprising that the forecast is being outperformed.
The SPF implied forecast is based on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first differences, which indicates each one percentage point increase in US nonfarm payroll employment is associated with a 0.76 percentage point increase in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to monthly via quadratic match.)
See also Erik Gunn on Dennis Winters’ assessment.
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