Economy

A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate

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With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):

Source: Rogoff, Rossi and Schmelzing (AER, 2024).

Contra assertions of a tight and positive link between population growth and the real interest rate, they write:

…aggregate population growth rates and real interest rates have structurally trended in opposite directions, except for the most recent decades. During major population growth shocks, the two series are positively correlated, such as during the Black Death of 1348-1351, the most dramatic demographic “rare disaster” striking advanced economies since the Renaissance – a period coinciding with a sharp plunge in global real rates: but these episodes resulting in positive correlations remain a clear exception over the long-run.

Definitely food for thought.

 

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