Economy

Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets

From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:

Source: RealClearPolitics, accessed 4/3/2024.

The spread between Trump and Biden has narrowed recently. Polls also tabulated at FiveThirtyEight.

For the sample beginning at the green line in the above figure, we have PredictIt odds.

Source: PredictIt, accessed 4/3/2024. Biden (light blue), Trump (dark blue), RFK, Jr (not shown).

 


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