Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green). Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Here’s a detail.
Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green). May PCE core for May is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6/13. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Note that May observation for core PCE instantaneous inflation incorporates the Cleveland Fed nowcast.
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