Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
Figure 1: Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus based on Bloomberg as of 7/4/2024 (tan square). Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
If the unemployment rate instead hits 4.1%, then the Sahm rule would indicate a recession. If the consensus is hit in June, and the unemployment rate stays constant through July then we’ll be at the threshold.
on the other hand, as Calculated Risk concluded yesterday, “Heavy truck sales are solid.”
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