The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7/31. RCP’s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this (approx 11:24 CT):
Source: RCP, accessed 8/10/2024, 11:20am CT.
The above depicts time series of unweighted averages. Here’s the individual platform data as of latest:
Source: RCP, accessed 8/10/2024.
Note the low for Harris is from Polymarket (mentioned in Bloomberg), while the highest for Trump is Bovada and Bwin. Highest for Harris is is PredictIt. Of these, only PredictIt is legally accessible to US residents (as I understand it). If you’ve ever talked to (even a well-informed) foreigner about US politics, you might appreciate the greater information set a typical American has relative to a typical foreigner (no aspersions cast: a typical German has a much much better appreciation of a German politics than a typical American, even one who has spent better part of a year in the country).
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