A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Figure 1: Wisconsin Mass layoff notifications, by month of notification (blue, left scale), and JOLTS layoffs, s.a. (tan, right scale), both in thousands. Source: DWD, BLS (JOLTS).
As of 8/13, the August count is 247, so somewhat of a rebound in August, but not much. JOLTS indications of layoffs (not just mass layoffs) are declining through June (latest available data).
If Hovde meant at the national level, I’m not sure what he meant, either.
Figure 2: Layoffs per month, 000’s (black, left scale), as share of employment (red, right scale). Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
If anybody can illuminate what Mr. Hovde means, please send me ideas.
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