From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT today:
So low probability…on the other hand, this is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US economic event. For comparison, Polymarket (which cannot operate in the US) indicates 52-46 Trump/Harris, while PredictIt (which can operate in the US) rates 52-52. Polymarket has consistently predicted a higher likelihood of Trump winning (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I must confess some uncertainty about the betting, since outcome is to be determined by 12/31/2024, but we won’t have Q4 GDP until January 2025…Here are the rules:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter.
If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.
The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.
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