I keep on hearing people like House Speaker Mike Johnson saying how growth under Trump was the fastest. Well, just comparing against the last three and a half years, I wonder how this can be true. Using the latest available BEA data:
Figure 1: GDP relative to 2021Q1 (blue), relative to 2017Q1 (tan), GDPNow as of 10/18 (light blue square), quarters into respective administrations, all in Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Someone will ask about per capita terms. If one thinks about how population growth changed during the Trump administration (forced separations of migrant families and all that stuff), you might think you know the answer, but I’ll show you the per capita series:
Figure 2: GDP per capita relative to 2021Q1 (blue), relative to 2017Q1 (tan), per capita GDPNow as of 10/18 (light blue square), quarters into respective administrations, all in Ch.2017$ per person. Note: Assumed growth rate of population in Q3 same as growth rate in Q2. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The race was tighter before the annual update. Of course, there were two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022. That is no longer true (contra Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni).
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