Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon.
Figure 1: Yield curve on 11/5/2024 (blue), on 12/31/2024 (orange), 2/21/2025 (green), %. Source: Treasury.
Here’re two conventional term spreads (neither of which have inverted), and the VIX.
Figure 2: 10yr-3mo term spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr term spread (red, left scale), both %; VIX (green, right scale). Source: Treasury, CBOE via FRED.
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