The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), IMF April WEO (blue square), WSJ April survey mean (red line), Dynan/PIIE April forecast (light blue line), Strong/JP Morgan – April WSJ (gray line), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA, IMF, WSJ, PIIE, and author’s calculations.
JP Morgan’s forecast, as provided by the WSJ survey, is the bottom 10th percentile forecast for 2025 q4/q4 growth, and projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The PIIE forecast by comparison has a rather shallow downturn, with only one quarter of negative growth, and essentially zero in the subsequent. Goldman Sachs tracking as of today is more in line with JP Morgan’s forecast. I have suggested (not proved) that the forecasts of GDP (rather than final domestic sales for instance) are being moved a lot by imports which have spiked due to tariff front-running.
GDPNow for today in 30 minutes…
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