From Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (light blue), February SPF median (red), GDPNow, 5/16 (blue square), all b.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 advance, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Compare to WSJ downshift:
Figure 2: GDP (black), IMF April WEO (dark blue square), January WEO (teal square), April WSJ (bold dark red), January (red), GDPNow of 4/17 adjusted for gold imports (green inverted triangle), all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, IMF, WSJ surveys, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Both WSj and SPF suggest a downward revision of GDP of about 1.2% by year’s end. Note that the IMF WEO showed a revision of 0.9% for 2025 q4/q4 growth, going from January to April.
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