Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle on things?
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU 7 day centered moving average (dark red, left scale), EPU-trade (teal, right scale), EPU-trade 7 day centered moving average (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
As a check, here’s the Caldara et al. measure compared against the Baker, Bloom and Davis measure of trade policy uncertainty.
Figure 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty (black, left scale), EPU 7 day centered moving average (pink, left scale), EPU-trade (teal, right scale), EPU-trade 7 day centered moving average (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, and Iacoviella et al.
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