Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square), NY Fed (light blue triangle) WSJ July survey mean (tan), Kalshi bet, 7/28 (pink circle), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/28 (light green circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. All predictions as of 7/25 unless otherwise indicated. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, WSJ survey, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs, Kalshi.com, and author’s calculations.
Interesting side note: The initial (April 30) GDPNow estimate for Q2 was… 2.4%!
Of course, GDP is somewhat less relevant given distortions due to tariff-front running. Unfortunately, there’s no betting for final sales to private domestic purchasers (aka “core GDP” per Furman).
Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted red triangle). All nowcasts are as of 7/25. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs and author’s calculations.
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