Economy

Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?



Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).

Kalshi betting now indicates a 20.8 day shutdown. That will make it such that the CPI and PPI releases are delayed as well (10/15 and 10/16 respectively.

Source: Kalshi, accessed 10/4/2025.

For NFP employment, the consensus estimate was 50-54K, hardly something to clap about. My nowcast based on q/q changes in ADP private NFP is shown here. For CPI, here’re the nowcasts (based on a statistical model run at the Cleveland Fed, not judgmental).

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for headline CPI (blue), and for core CPI (tan). September observation is Cleveland nowcast at monthly frequency as of 10/4/2025. Source: BLS and Cleveland Fed, accessed 10/4/2025.

 



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