What to expect in the February release.
Figure 1: Official BLS nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), official BLS private nonfarm payroll (dark red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (light red), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (light green), change since 2025M01, in 000’s s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
The 3 month centered moving average of the (CPS) civilian employment series rises much more than the others. Why? As noted in the January employment release:
Population Control Adjustments to the Household Survey
The annual population control adjustments that are usually incorporated with the release of January estimates in February will instead be introduced with the release of February 2026 estimates in March. Consequently, the initial January 2026 household survey estimates in this news release continue to use short-term projections of monthly population estimates derived from population adjustments introduced in January 2025 (based on Vintage 2024 population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau). As soon as practicable, BLS plans to revise January 2026 estimates to incorporate the updated population controls. Additional information will be announced at www.bls.gov/cps/documentation.htm#pop.
In Figure 2 I plot the official series — which shows a big upward jump in January 2025 when the new population controls were implemented — and the experimental series which incorporates smoothed population controls.
Figure 2: Official civilian employment (teal), experimental civilian employment, using smoothed population controls (red), both in 000’s, s.a. LIght lilac shaded area denotes data using 2025 population controls. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS.
Usually, January brings the use of new population controls. Due to the government shutdown, the 2025 population controls were applied to the January 2026 estimates. If population is assessed to have grown more slowly in 2026 than in 2025, then one should expect a downward revision in the January 2026 number.
With respect to the CES series, Wells Fargo expects a downward revision to healthcare and assistance and hence overall NFP growth in January, and +55K for February NFP growth.
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