But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket:
From Kalshi over comparable period:
Kalshi rises to 31.6% from 23.1% on February 27.
Kalshi uses 2 consecutive quarter criterion, while Polymarket uses either NBER declaration or 2 quarter rule.
Goldman Sachs rates a 25% probability of recession.
For comparison, the January WSJ survey mean probability of a recession over the next 12 months was 27%.
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