From Kalshi:
My conjecture: As long as the probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening goes down, the betting odds of recession will rise. Polymarket has the end-April odds of Hormuz being open at end-April now down to 37%.
The Brent crude futures curve as of Friday close. If $108 is about consistent with closure, then April settlement price is consistent with near complete closure.
Source: ICE.
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