I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.
While the introduction of ground troops, at the levels of the 31st MEU plus 1500 from the 82nd airborne, signals a land incursion of some sort, it’s unclear what the mission would be; hence, it would be unclear what would signal the end to such an incursion. Even the introduction of an additional 10,000 troops, as mentioned by Mr. Trump, would not necessarily be able to secure the Strait of Hormuz. However, they do signal a lower likelihood of TACO, hence the higher oil futures prices (in my view).
This all seems like Mr. Trump is sleepwalking into a major war (since the Republican controlled Congress is unwilling to advise on this war).
It’s not clear to me how closing the Strait of Hormuz, along with destruction of oil infrastructure incurred so far, is going to cause a jump to $145. However, the war seems to be expanding, rather than remaining contained, so further reductions of oil supply are certainly possible. In particular, closing off the Red Sea — or damage to Yanbu port — seem like plausible scenarios.
Recession probabilities for 2026 now stand at 36% for both Kalshi and Polymarket.
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