Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (aka “core GDP”)

From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today:

Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), March SPF median (brown), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, log scale. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.

Since the series are plotted on a log scale, it’s clear that “core GDP” is decelerating, both relative to the 2023-24 trend, and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median.

Note that the nowcasts are based upon reported data through February (i.e., prewar data).