Employment and goods exports have declined. GDP flatlines in Q4.
Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, in 000’s (blue, left log scale), real goods exports in mn2000$ (red, right log scale). Nominal exports seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 in logs, deflated to real exports using US goods exports deflator. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, DWD and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin employment was rising through September 2024, and has been trending down since then. Real exports have been clearly falling since liberation day.
The Philadelphia Fed provides a check on the official employment (NFP) series in its early benchmark. Through September, it appears employment is indeed falling from “Liberation Day”
Figure 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and early benchmark (light blue), both i 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed.
Focus on employment growth is probably not advisable in a period where labor force, due to restricted immigration, is barely growing. DWD indicates that the Wisconsin labor force has barely budged in the last year ending February. Here are two aggregate measures of activity: real GDP and total wages and salaries.
Figure 3: GDP, in mn.Ch.2017$ (blue, left log scale), total wages and salaries, in mn 1982-84$ (brown, right log scale). Total wages and salaries deflated by CPI. Source: BEA, CPI via FRED, ad author’s calculations.
Real GDP flattened out in Q4; with national GDP forecasted to grow 2.8% q/q annualized, Wisconsin GDP growth is likely to recover in Q1. Nonetheless, growth has definitely slowed.
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