Up, up and away.
Figure 1: One year ahead CPI inflation expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (blue), from NY Fed (red), Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (teal +), Cleveland Fed model based (light brown), Survey of Professional Forecasters (sky blue square), all in %. Source: U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed [1], [2], Philadelphia Fed.
As an aside, as we await the April CPI, it looks like it’s going to be a whopper (albeit probably not an unexpected). From State Street’s PriceStats (based on work by Alberto Cavallo):
Source: State Street.
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