Preliminary May results out:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day”, red dashed line at US-Iran War. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.
Interestingly, sentiment was down for both Republicans and Independents, while Democrats moved sideways.
Figure 2: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue), Independent (chartreuse), Republican/lean Republican (red). Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day”, red dashed line at US-Iran War. Source: UMichigan.
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