From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.
Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.
In January, the Coincident Index surged 2.9% q/q AR. NFP employment appeared to have continued momentum, with February q/q AR growth at 1.2%. While civilian employment only grew a corresponding 0.4%, it’s important to recall the household survey series are subject to much greater imprecision, particularly at the state level [1].
In my view, the assertion by the WisGOP in response to Governor Evers’ State of the State address that Wisconsin is undergoing a recession is unjustified.
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