The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (teal), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
We are on target for nonfarm payroll employment vis a vis the May ’24 forecast, according to the DWD/BLS. The Philadelphia Fed early benchmark is slightly below the official (0.4%, 11,500) for April, keeping in mind the actual benchmark (as opposed to extended forecast) runs through December (0.3%, 7900).
On private nonfarm payroll employment, there’s no early benchmark check. However, I can use the (seasonally adjusted) changes in net job gains from the Business Employment Dynamics to compare against quarterly private NFP.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (black), cumulative Business Employment Dynamics net job gains iterated on 2022Q3 (blue), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. 2024Q2 private NFP average of April and May. Source: DWD, BLS, WI DoR.
Finally, for (the relatively imprecisely measured) household survey based civilian employment series, actual is below forecasted by 0.3%.
Figure 3: Wisconsin civilian employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, WI DoR.
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