Economy
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DonaldTrump Rex (would be) | Econbrowser
Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:…
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Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a…
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Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty
Treasury Secretary Bessent says housing is in recession because of high interest rates. Might not high policy uncertainty have some…
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ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP
ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus). Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release…
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Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers
Or, “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” If (1) private NFP as measured by BLS equals ADP…
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Betting on Noise? Supreme Court and IEEPA Tariffs
What has driven the betting on the Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs down to 35%? Is it…
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Labor Market Indicators amidst the Shutdown
On November 5th, we’ll get the ADP numbers for private NFP. Bloomberg consensus is for +28K, while…
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Updating Antoni-St.Onge (2024): The 2022 Recession Is Over!
Recall, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argued the US economy has been in recession since 2022. Source: Antoni and St. Onge…
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CA, NY, and the Nation: GDP vs. Employment
Mark Zandi has asserted that whether the US goes into recession depends on how CA and NY economies evolve. If…
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Growth Deceleration Relative to “Liberation Day”
Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is down 1.1 ppts, while Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic…
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