Economy
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Non-Federal Statistic of the Day: Recession Predictor?
We would’ve gotten Q3 advance GDP yesterday, and September personal income and outlays today, ordinarily. What indicators do we have…
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ACA Premiums without Extension of Expanded Tax Credit
Data from Pew, for average marketplace benchmark plans, per month: Figure 1: Average benchmark ACA premium (Silver…
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Trump: China to buy a “tremendous” amount of soybeans
Per Bloomberg. Hmm. Commitment to 12 mn metric tons (MMT) “this year” (calendar, market?). Figure 1: Figures…
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Hi Frequency Readout on Consumer Prices, Thru 12 October
Given we’re unlikely to get a CPI release for October… Cavallo estimates CPI is 0.7 ppts higher…
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CBO on Macro Effects of the Shutdown
From ” A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on the Economy Under Three…
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Everyday Prices Up 2.2% since Jan. 2025
That’s the AIER Everyday Price Index ™ in September: Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue), Everyday Price…
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Conference Board Confidence Down Slightly
Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence…
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Macro Implications of Withholding Contingency Funding of SNAP
Contingency funds are available to fund SNAP disbursements for at least part of November. OMB Director Vought’s unprecedented decision to…
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States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1
(where I *do not* equate 2 consecutive quarters to a recession, as that’s what rookies do…): Figure 1: Annualized GDP…
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What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
Amicus Brief, and NTU Open Letter: Signatories: Stan Veuger is Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Visiting Lecturer…
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