Economy
-
What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?
Current betting on Kalshi is for a 34.5 day shutdown (5pm CT), taking us to November 3-4. At this rate,…
Read More » -
ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to…
Read More » -
Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business…
Read More » -
US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown. Data as of noon (CT) 17…
Read More » -
IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend: Figure 1:…
Read More » -
Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025: Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims…
Read More » -
Some Business Cycle Observables | Econbrowser
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production,…
Read More » -
Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh,…
Read More » -
Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale).…
Read More » -
FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this…
Read More »