Economy
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How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can…
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WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
Out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ mean (blue), WSJ +/- 20% bounds (gray), GDPNow of…
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Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But…
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Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated | Econbrowser
Here’re key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, with indications of measures already missed…
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On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector
An assessment of how current Administration polices regarding immigration and removals are affecting the agricultural sector (October 2): Agricultural employers,…
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EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources
Antoni on X: The reason that UMich’s fake inflation expectation data can sometimes rise when all 3 components (R’s, D’s,…
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Why I Think the Administration Would Be Happy to Let the October Employment Release Slip
Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will…
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Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!
November futures for soybeans collapse upon Trump’s announcement: Source: barchart.com . Source link
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Scary Picture? | Econbrowser
Prepping for my lecture on Monday, I plotted this graph of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE)…
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What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)
Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier. Here’s…
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