Economy

Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels

With today’s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture. Figure…

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Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size

Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data.  …

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Agricultural Exports through August | Econbrowser

Down from January: Figure 1: Agricultural (food, feed and beverages) exports in mn$ (tan), in mn2017$ (blue),…

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Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers

From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this…

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Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition

The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers…

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An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator

Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple…

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What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs

A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using…

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Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition

From Bloomberg, “Trump Says US Tariffs on Heavy Truck Imports to Start Nov. 1”: Trump’s announcement is…

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Twenty Two Days in October

That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA?…

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Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?

Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t…

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