Economy
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Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle…
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Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs? | Econbrowser
Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right. Figure 1: Panel A: Average effective…
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The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT: United States would begin imposing a…
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Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month). Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark…
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$20 bn Credit Line to Argentina?
Why? Is Argentina central to US national security or economic interests? This Bloomberg article doesn’t explain the…
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Miran on r* | Econbrowser
Yesterday, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the White…
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Guest Contribution: “FAIT, Shortfalls, and the Federal Reserve’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of…
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The Availability of Quarterly GDP Data for the US: Memo to EJ Antoni
Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for…
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Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Define Recessions as Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth
That’s exactly what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022): In terms of how we define it or…
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EJ Antoni: “factor in the millions of people missing from the labor market (don’t have jobs but are excluded from official unemployment calculation)”
That’s a plea from an X post a year ago. He presented various calculations (which are hard to replicate, because…
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