Economy

Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark.…

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Miran: “I don’t see any material inflation from tariffs…”

From CNN. OK. From the Pricing Lab: Source link

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Everyday Prices (Still) Going Up – and Big Mac for Me, but not for Thee

From the American Institute for Economic Research, compared to CPI, and CPI for fast food… Figure 1:…

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Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Declines in August

From DWD release today: Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS, DWD. Manufacturing employment…

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Civilian Employment Peaked in April 2025

So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the…

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EJ Antoni ‘s”Sustainable” Employment Measure Is in the Red

EJ Antoni noted a year ago (Sept 6, 2024): gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth]..…

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One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP

FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan…

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Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September

Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways. Figure 1: Nonfarm…

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The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault

If credibility is degraded, then tariff induced cost-push shocks are less likely to manifest as one-off price…

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WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”

Video of proceedings tomorrow (Tues, 9/16) on WisconsinEye. Source: Pawel Skrzypczynski, accessed 9/14/2025. Particpants: Menzie Chinn, an economics professor in…

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