Economy

Scary Picture? | Econbrowser

Prepping for my lecture on Monday, I plotted this graph of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE)…

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What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)

Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier. Here’s…

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Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels

With today’s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture. Figure…

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Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size

Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data.  …

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Agricultural Exports through August | Econbrowser

Down from January: Figure 1: Agricultural (food, feed and beverages) exports in mn$ (tan), in mn2017$ (blue),…

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Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers

From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this…

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Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition

The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers…

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An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator

Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple…

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What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs

A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using…

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Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition

From Bloomberg, “Trump Says US Tariffs on Heavy Truck Imports to Start Nov. 1”: Trump’s announcement is…

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