Economy
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EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni, …an increasing number of…
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The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
Coffee prices up and away — in the US. Figure 1: Price of coffee, US city average…
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CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast. Figure 1: GDP…
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The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre): He was…
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Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields…
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Sentiment Declines
Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence. Source link
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Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
From the CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (black), ERS forecast of January 2025…
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Instantaneous Core Inflation
Up. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE (green), T=12, a=4 per Eeckhout (2024).. Source link
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser
Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down…
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“What New Have We Learned about US Dollar Dominance As a Reserve Currency?”
That’s the title of my keynote talk at the 27th INFER conference (Rome), an excellent exchange of…
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