Economy
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Why We Teach International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Together
Or, why should a bunch of ICE agents running amok in a Hyundai-LG factory have an impact…
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White House Tries to (Ineptly) Spin the Preliminary Benchmark Release
From the White House today: The benchmark revisions make clear the economy President Trump inherited was even…
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Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Remember that the Preliminary Benchmark Revision is… Preliminary. While this is obvious, the implications are not necessarily so. In particular,…
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“Is the US already in recession?”
Tej Parikh in FT inquires. He presents growth rates of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee…
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Mid-Session Review Technical Supplement Is Out
As of yesterday, here. Here’s the Troika (OMB, CEA, Treasury) forecast, plotted against SPF, IMF, and GDPNow (9/4). CBO projections…
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How’s Manufacturing Doing? | Econbrowser
Since “Liberation Day”, so-so: Figure 1: Manufacturing employment, production and nonsupervisory workers (blue), aggregate worker hours (green),…
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Trouble in Estimating Seasonals As a Reason for the Low NFP Growth?
NEC Director Hassett makes reference to a GS note that indicates that August preliminary figures typically get…
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“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.”
If you think that’s Kevin Hassett opining, you’d be wrong. It’s actually CEA Chair Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008.…
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Why Did Mr. Trump Say before the Employment Release “the real numbers”…”will be in a year from now on”?
[source] Answer: Because, by virtue of the Executive Office of the President getting the release numbers the night before, he…
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Employment in the Context of Business Cycle Indicators
With NFP at +22K < +75K Bloomberg consensus (hinted at by Trump signaling “pay no heed to the numbers behind…
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