Economy
-
Twenty Two Days in October
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA?…
Read More » -
Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t…
Read More » -
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a…
Read More » -
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September. FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September…
Read More » -
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford…
Read More » -
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have. Figure 1:…
Read More » -
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored…
Read More » -
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
From The Hill: Source: Times of Israel. The White House is withdrawing the nomination of E.J. Antoni…
Read More » -
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist: …developing economies face an investment shortfall…
Read More » -
Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). A lot of my…
Read More »