Economy
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Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level…
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Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises
From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232…
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Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories
Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray),…
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In Search of the Section 232 (National Security) Report on Bathroom Vanities
This is what I found on the Bureau of Industrial Security/Dept of Commerce website: In contrast,…
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Guest Contribution: “Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee). The Divergence…
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EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact,…
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“What to know about Trump’s new pharmaceutical tariff plan”: That We Don’t Know Anything
Really, you read “The Hill” article, you literally don’t know anything. According to a former federal trade official, enforcing this…
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What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against…
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Trade Policy Uncertainty | Econbrowser
Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade Figure 1: EPU-trade category (left…
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Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending. Source: DB, 24 Sep…
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