Economy

Yield Curves over the Last Year

The yield curve at the short end is almost as inverted as it was in November 2024.…

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“How Tariffs are Affecting Wisconsin Economy”

WisPolitics Luncheon on 9/16, 11:30-1pm. Join WisPolitics and the Wisconsin Technology Council on Tuesday Sept. 16 for…

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The Employment Picture — Pre-August Release

JOLTS data indicates the vacancies to unemployed ratio has descended to unity. Figure 1: Top panel: Civilian employment (experimental series),…

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The Financial System: Some Graphs

Starting teaching today a course on the financial system. Here are some graphs of the current situation, through August.  …

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Nowcasted “Core GDP” Decelerates | Econbrowser

Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers — arguably a better indicator over time about momentum in…

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It Can’t Happen Here: Inflation Edition

I was thinking about how a completely subservient central bank can destroy price stability, referring to examples…

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All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July

And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too: Figure 1:  Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (black, left…

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Still on the Trade Policy Uncertainty Roller Coaster

The appeals court decision is a win, but we’re still a far way from resolving policy uncertainty:…

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Deceleration Confirmed | Econbrowser

Despite the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and accelerated nowcast growth in 3rd quarter GDP, aggregate demand is decelerating. First,…

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Business Cycle Indicators as of End-of-August

Real personal income ex-transfers, manufacturing and trade industry sales, civilian employment, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, industrial and manufacturing…

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